WTO Expects Weak World Trade Thru June 2019

(GENEVA, SWITZERLAND) World trade growth is likely to remain weak through the first half of this year, according to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI). The new Indicator reading is 96.3, exactly as it was in February, maintaining the weakest level since 2010. It should be noted that the outlook does not reflect major trade measures announced in recent days. The outlook for trade could worsen further if heightened trade tensions are not resolved or if the macroeconomic policy fails to adjust to changing circumstances. In their April trade forecast, WTO economists explain international air freight (92.3), automobile production and sales (92.2), and raw agricultural materials (92.4) are well below trend while container port throughput (101.0) also declined but remained above neutral. Indices for export orders (96.6) and electronic components (96.7) appear to have bottomed out, even as both remained firmly below-trend. Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate below trend growth.