Would Domestic Recession Affect U.S. Agriculture?
(GREENWOOD VILLAGE, CO) A domestic recession in the United States could impact American agriculture, but academics, economists and policymakers are split on the effects it might have. According to Thomas Halverson with Co-Bank, the current U.S. economic recovery dates to July 2009 and is already the second-longest since World War II, and by the middle of next year will become the longest on record. At some point the expansion will end. Over the course of the time period studied, there has clearly been a positive correlation between real GDP and farm income though the relationship has weakened over time. The success that American farmers and ranchers have had growing export markets around the world must certainly be near the top of the list. American agriculture has mitigated some of its exposure to the domestic economy by building a larger export market not directly linked to U.S. GDP growth. The growth of China as a major consumer of U.S.-produced agricultural commodities has been first and foremost in this regard. No one knows when the next recession will hit, though many economists and other knowledgeable observers currently expect one to commence in the next several years.