Wheat Acreage Set to Decline in 2019

(WASHINGTON, DC) U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) has been leaning on its network of media and industry resources to fill the information void left by a partially-funded USDA, which cannot publish its critical economic reports until the agency receives full funding again. Winter wheat acres, for 2019 harvest, are expected to fall slightly below planting levels for 2018 harvest, while spring wheat acres, planted in the coming months, are expected to rise above 2018 levels. This is according to a Reuters poll of commercial export analysts, published on Jan. 8th estimating total winter wheat seedings for the 2019 harvest at 32.3 million acres (MA), down nearly 1 percent year over year. Other sources expect a steeper decline in winter wheat acres. Informa Economics forecasts a 1 MA decline year over year at 31.5 MA. The Reuters analyst poll estimated 2019 hard red winter (HRW) seeding area at 22.7 MA, down from 22.9 MA planted for 2018 harvest. Gilpin expects a 10 percent decrease in HRW acres in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas due to extremely wet conditions which delayed the soybean harvest and in turn HRW planting. However, he expects an uptick in HRW planted area in northern states, which would partially offset reduced area in the south. Planted area for soft red winter (SRW) could land in the neighborhood of 6.02 MA according to the Reuters poll, down year over year from 6.08 MA.