U.S. Agricultural Trade Surplus Expanding in FY 2020

(WASHINGTON, DC) U.S. agricultural exports are projected to reach $137 billion next year, up $2.5 billion from the revised forecast for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, according to the latest data from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). This anticipated increase is primarily driven by higher exports of pork, beef, soybeans, and horticultural products. Pork exports are forecast at $6.3 billion (up $800 million from FY 2019), partially resulting from the repeal of Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs and an increase in global pork demand due to the African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic. Beef and veal exports are forecast at $7.8 billion (up $300 million). Horticultural exports are forecast up $500 million to $35.5 billion with higher sales of food preparations, beer, and mixed seasonings. Soybean exports are forecast to rise $400 million to $16.8 billion on higher volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $100 million to $5.8 billion. Grain and feed exports are unchanged. Exports to Canada are forecast at $21.5 billion (up $400 million) and to Mexico $19.8 billion (up $500 million). Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $7.5 billion, an increase of $200 million on higher expected pork sales. U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2020 are forecast at $129.0 billion, a reduction of $300 million primarily due to decreases in horticultural product imports. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to increase by $2.8 billion to $8.0 billion.