U.S. Agricultural Exports Expecting Decline, Trade Surplus Continues

WASHINGTON, DC – U.S. agricultural exports are projected to total $134.5 billion in fiscal year (FY2019) that just ended. According to the Economic Research Service (ERS), agricultural imports are expected to total $129.3 billion thus leading to a $5.2 billion surplus. If realized, this would be the lowest since 2006, when the U.S. exported $4.6 billion more in agricultural goods than it imported. Unlike overall U.S. trade in goods and services, agricultural trade consistently runs at a surplus. Although agricultural exports have increased in value since 2016, the value of imports has risen at a slightly faster rate, leading to a declining trade balance. Compared to the previous Outlook for Agricultural Trade forecasts, exports were revised downward by $2.5 billion while imports were raised by $300 million. The decline in expected export value was primarily due to lowered expectations for corn and soybean exports. For imports, the increase in the forecast was due, in part, to an increase in the expected value of fruit and vegetable imports. Initial projections for the FY2020 suggest a small recovery in the agricultural trade balance to $8 billion (exports valued at $137 billion and imports valued at $129.0 billion).