This Year’s Domestic Corn Crop Will Be Smaller

(STATE COLLEGE, PA) The difficult corn-production scenario that farmers have foreseen for the 2019 season appears to be playing out, despite higher-than-expected estimates from USDA. A total of 125 participants initially took part in the four-day Pro Farmer Crop Tour last week, a seven-state boots-on-the-ground analysis of crop conditions from Ohio to South Dakota. And the results reflect how rain and flooding caused such early difficulties in the Corn Belt this year. In Ohio, corn yield potential on the tour was estimated at 154 bushels per acre, a whopping drop from 2018’s tour estimate of 179 for the state and the three-year average of 164. In South Dakota, corn yield potential was estimated at 154 bushels per acre, far below the 2018 tour estimate of 178. Ohio and South Dakota were two of the worst-hit states by early-weather planting problems. Comparatively, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska are faring better, though still below last year’s numbers. For example, the corn yield potential on the tour was estimated at 170 bushels per acre for Minnesota, compared to 178 in 2018. As a result of the latest analysis, AccuWeather estimates corn yield will be significantly lower than 2018 production in all five of the top 2018 corn-producing states. In order, those states are Iowa (17.4% of U.S. corn production), Illinois (15.8%), Minnesota (9.4%), Nebraska (7.9%) and Indiana (6.8%). All five states are estimated to see production drop from 6% to 19% compared to 2018, with Illinois at the high end of the estimate, according to AccuWeather’s analysis. Also, Ohio, the 8th-largest U.S. corn-producing state, will have a yield estimated to be roughly 18% lower. AccuWeather now forecasts a 2019 corn yield of 13.28 billion bushels from 79.5 million acres harvested.