Permian-Basin Production Sets U.S. as Major Oil Exporter

WASHINGTON, DC – In December 2019, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group of other oil producers announced they were deepening the production cuts originally announced one year earlier. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil production will rise in 2020 despite the cuts, as expected growth in non-OPEC crude oil production will offset OPEC’s reduced output. Non-OPEC production will be driven by continued growth in the United States. Outside of the U.S., growing crude oil production in Brazil, Norway, and Canada will also contribute to supply growth over the next 24 months. In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA reports that U.S. crude oil production in 2019 hit a record annual average of 12.2 million barrels per day. EIA forecasts domestic production will reach 13.3 million barrels per day in 2020 and 13.7 million barrels per day in 2021. Most of the production growth is occurring in the Permian-Basin region of Texas and New Mexico. Net imports of crude oil and petroleum product fell from an average of 2.3 million b/d in 2018 to an average of 500-thousand b/d last year. In addition, EIA estimates the United States has exported more total crude oil and petroleum products than it has imported since September. Current forecasts expect the U.S. to be a net exporter of total crude oil and petroleum products by 800-thousand b/d in this year expanding to 1.4 million b/d in 2021.