January 2020 World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

January 2020 World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased feed and residual use, and lower stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on lower-than-expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is down 1 million bushels reflecting 2020/21 wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Ending stocks are now projected at 965 million bushels, down 9 million from the previous report. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.55 per bushel.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for greater beginning stocks, slightly higher production, reduced food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), larger feed and residual use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 107 million bushels reflecting upward revisions to both on-farm and off-farm stocks as of September 1 as reported in Grain Stocks. Corn production is estimated at 13.692 billion bushels, up 31 million as a higher yield more than offsets a reduction in harvested area.

Total corn use is up 155 million bushels to 14.070 billion. Exports are reduced by 75 million bushels to 1.775 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012/13 marketing year. FSI use is lowered 20 million bushels, with lower projected corn used for starch, glucose and dextrose, and high fructose corn syrup. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 5.525 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter and the 2018/19 marketing year as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. With use rising more than supply, 2019/20 corn stocks are reduced 18 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is estimated at 107.4 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month. Smaller canola, sunflower seed, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by a larger soybean crop. Soybean production is estimated at 3.56 billion bushels, up 8 million on a higher yield. Harvested area is estimated at 75.0 million acres, down 0.6 million from the previous forecast, with the largest reductions for North Dakota and South Dakota. Yield is estimated at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels led by increases for Illinois and Indiana. Soybean supplies are relatively unchanged as lower beginning stocks and imports offset higher production. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 15 cents in part reflecting stronger soybean oil prices.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2019 total red meat and poultry production estimate is reduced from last month as lower pork and turkey production more than offset higher beef production. The beef production estimate is raised on the pace of late-year slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced on the slower pace of slaughter in late 2019. The broiler production estimate is unchanged from the previous month, but the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data. The egg production estimate is raised on late-2019 production data.

COTTON: This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton in 2019/20 includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Production is lowered 100,000 bales, mainly due to a decline in Texas which was partially offset in other States. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 5.4 million bales. Upland cotton season-average price received by farmers is projected 2 cents higher than a month ago at 63 cents per pound, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices.