How Accurate are Drought Maps in Predicting Yields?

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – You’ve probably seen the latest drought maps, but do they mean lower crop yields in areas affected by drought? According to David Widmar with Agricultural Economic Insights, the relationship between drought and yields is less clear cut than you might expect.

Looking back, Widmar says, in challenging drought years of 2000, 2005, 2006, and 2007, corn yields still came in above trend while in years like 2010 and 2011 yields suffered despite fewer acres impacted by drought. Comparing mid-July conditions over the past 20 years, conditions are more challenging this year as 45 percent of corn and 40 percent of soybean acres face drought or dry conditions.

The relationship between acres in drought conditions and final national yields is not very strong. So while these drought maps are very influential Widmar urges producers to exercise caution when making yield projections and forecasts based solely on the maps.
(SOURCE: Agricultural Economic Insights)