Smaller U.S. Cotton Crop Faces Challenges Amid Opportunities

LUBBOCK, TX – Weather issues are weighing heavily on the U.S. cotton crop this year due to recent hurricanes in the Mid-South and expanding drought in West Texas. Jon Devine is a Senior Economist with Cotton Incorporated and says he expects the final harvest numbers, both acreage, and production, to slip dramatically in 2020. With lower production numbers, he says it could provide an opportunity for support in the market through higher prices. Despite the possibility of a smaller crop, the industry is still dealing with a large carryover of stocks from last year and it may take a few years to whittle that down. A few years ago, India emerged as the top cotton-producing country in the world but they are dependent on monsoon rains for irrigation. Devine explains that unlike the past few growing seasons, those weather events have been both big and timely. The result could be a very large Indian crop. Paired with the double-crop capabilities of Brazil, the smaller U.S. crop will be a factor but not a driver of cotton prices into 2021. One bright opportunity for U.S. cotton growers though is in Pakistan. As that country continues to struggle with decreasing yields in their cotton crop, they also need more natural fibers to feed the demand of a growing textile business. Since the country has been importing more than 1 million bales of cotton every year, the door could be wide-open for more American cotton to find a home in Pakistan.
(SOURCE: All Ag News)