Uncertainty Regarding Increased Chinese Trade, Driving Farmer Concerns

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – Farmers are less optimistic today about the outcome of the trade dispute with China and whether it would be resolved in a way that benefits U.S. agriculture, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The percentage of farmers expecting the soybean trade dispute with China to be resolved soon, which peaked in January at 69 percent, fell to 47 percent in March. Meanwhile, the percentage that expects the trade dispute to be resolved in a way that’s ultimately beneficial to U.S. agriculture was down to 68 percent from an average of just over 80 percent (in the first two months of the year). In another sign that farmers were less confident that the trade dispute with China will be resolved soon, more farmers in the March survey said they expect to receive another MFP (Market Facilitation Program) payment from USDA on their 2020 crop production. In March, 62 percent of producers anticipate a third round of MFP payments (MFP 3.0) this growing season.