Bearish Price Projections Pressuring Potential U.S. Cotton Plantings

NEW ORLEANS, LA – National Cotton Council (NCC) economists project 2020 U.S. cotton acreage to be 13 million acres, a 5.5 percent reduction from 2019. The expected drop in acreage is the result of weaker cotton prices relative to corn and soybeans and comes via the Council’s Annual Planting Intentions survey. With abandonment assumed at 13.8 percent, this would result in 11.2 million acres for harvest. If yields average 848 pounds per acre, the NCC would expect a cotton crop of 19.8 million bales and cottonseed production of 6.1 million tons this season. Export markets continue will continue to represent the largest customer for U.S. producers. While export competition from Brazil remains strong, the U.S. is finding opportunities for export sales to markets other than just China. As a result, the United States remains the largest exporter of cotton in 2019 (16.5 million bales). Exports are projected to drop slightly to 16.4 million bales in the 2020 marketing year as world production is expected to decline. Still, NCC expects other factors to have a bearish influence on cotton prices in the new marketing year.