Chinese Imports of American Pork Continue to Surge

WASHINGTON, DC – Forecasts for U.S. pork exports this marketing year (2019 & 2020) were recently raised, due in large part to expectations of continued significant growth in Chinese demand for U.S. pork. According to the Economic Research Service at USDA, China’s demand for imported pork has accelerated as African Swine Fever (ASF) has continued to spread across China and other neighboring countries. While ASF does not affect humans, it kills most infected swine and presently has no vaccine nor a cure. Last September, China’s inventory of swine was down 41 percent from a year earlier, as many farmers culled hogs to prevent herds from becoming infected. By mid-October, China’s hog and pork prices had almost doubled from previous-year levels as pork supplies tightened. To partially fill its supply shortfall, China increased pork imports from the United States and ten other countries. Despite retaliatory tariffs and taxes imposed by the Chinese (up to 78 percent on most U.S. pork products), U.S. exports of pork to China have increased by 91 percent. Total U.S. pork exports this year are now forecast at 6.85 billion pounds, a 12 percent year over year increase. Next year, exports are anticipated to be 11 percent higher than in 2019.