Despite Growth in Farm Output, Future Still Uncertain

(WASHINGTON, DC) U.S. farm output has grown by 170 percent over the past 70 years. Increases in total factor productivity (TFP) accounted for more than 90 percent of the growth. However, growth rates fluctuate considerably year-to-year, mostly in response to adverse weather, which can lower productivity estimates. Recent research from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) modeled a future climate-change scenario with an average temperature increase of 3.6 degrees (Fahrenheit) and a 1-inch decrease in average annual precipitation. Results showed that the difference in total-factor productivity levels between the projected period (2030-2040) and the reference period (2000-2010) varies by State. For some, climate change falls within the range of what is historically observed, while for other States they do not. The States experiencing the greatest impacts would include Louisiana and Mississippi in the Delta region; Rhode Island, Delaware, and Connecticut in the Northeast; Missouri in the Corn Belt; Florida in the Southeast; North Dakota in the Northern Plains region; and Oklahoma in the Southern Plains.