Livestock Prices Expected to Decline, Turkey Bucks Trend

(WASHINGTON, DC) USDA released their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for July on Thursday. The 2019 red meat and poultry production forecast is raised from last month as higher forecast pork and broiler production more than offsets lower beef and turkey production forecasts. The beef production forecast is reduced primarily on lighter carcass weights and slightly lower third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. USDA will release the Cattle report on July 19th, providing a mid-year estimate of U.S. cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef cow replacement. Forecast pork production is raised from last month on higher-than-expected second-quarter commercial hog slaughter. Cattle price forecasts for 2019 are lowered from last month, reflecting current prices. For 2020, forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Hog price forecasts are lowered on recent prices and pressure from increased pork production in late 2019. Hog prices for 2020 are reduced slightly on increased supply pressure. Broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2019 on current price weakness and continued slow demand. No changes are made to 2020 broiler price forecasts. Turkey price forecasts are raised for 2019 and 2020. The milk production forecast for 2019 is unchanged, but the forecast for 2020 is reduced on slower expected growth in milk per cow.