Rising Imports, Declining Exports Lower Ag Trade Surplus

(WASHINGTON, DC) U.S. agricultural exports are projected to total $137 billion this fiscal year (FY) 2019 (October 2018–September 2019), while agricultural imports are expected to total $129 billion. This is according to the latest estimates by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). In the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural trade, the projected $8 billion surpluses are the lowest since 2006, when the U.S. exported $4.6 billion more in agricultural goods than it imported. Unlike overall trade in goods and services, trade in the agricultural sector consistently runs at a surplus. Although ag exports have increased in value since 2016, the value of imports has risen at a slightly faster rate, leading to a declining trade balance. Exports were revised downward by $4.5 billion in the latest Outlook while imports were raised by $1 billion with the decline in expected export value primarily due to lowered expectations for corn and soybean exports. For imports, the increase is due in part to more fruits and vegetables expected to be imported by the United States.