2020 Marks End of Current Cattle Expansion Cycle

WASHINGTON, DC – The current cattle expansion cycle appears to have come to an end. That’s the assessment from Dr. Jason Franken, Western Illinois ag economist who says “currently, there are about 7 percent more beef cows in the U.S. than during the low point in 2014. However, as prices have come back down, it looks like the expansion of the beef herd has leveled off.” According to USDA’s January 1st Inventory report, all cattle and calves totaled 94.4 million head, slightly below the 94.8 million in 2019. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 40.7 million head, were 1 percent below last year at the same time. Also, cattle and calves on feed for all feedlots totaled 14.7 million head which is 2 percent higher than last year, and a 2019 calf crop of 36.1 million head is down 1 percent. As for expected prices through 2020, Franken says, all things considered, prices are likely to land in similar ranges as the last couple of years. Quarterly prices for slaughter steers are forecast to average about $123 per hundredweight in the first quarter, down to $120 in the second, $111 in the third and $113 at the end of 2020. Feeder steers (600-700 pounders) are forecast to average about $148 in the first quarter, rising to $154 in the second, $153 in the third and $149 to end the year.